To successfully business processes management in the modern world, it is necessary to use forecasts. Analysis, as a rule, boils down to a methodical study in the aspect of a specific market, which is influenced by various factors (those also has a logical and explainable dependence). The market depends on the economy, for example, which may depend on politics. The politics depends on the tasks and situations. All these aspects may be in direct and indirect dependence on crises, disasters, natural phenomena and cataclysms. Moreover, all this is not literal, and the chain of dependence can be built in one direction or another.
We propose a new analysis tool, which is necessary for the study of the states that arise within any dependency, because with their help, you can see the global indicators of the ratio of public reactions - "interests" and "intentions." This method is additional, but it significantly improves the quality of any technical analysis of the market, used along with the fundamental. The more attentively you treat it, the more qualitatively it will serve you, helping you in business management and in buy and sell in the market.
Stage 1 - Analysis of the general condition (socio-psychological factor).
We divide the global analysis into two groups, which are the graphic planes that reflect the level of public interest in certain aspects in detail:
I— (interest) politics, economics, markets, situations, crisis;II— (intention) invest money, -|- in real estate, -|- in cryptocurrency, -|- in gold;
Analytical plane of group « I » - provides an opportunity to determine the priorities of public interest, both in real time (1 day) and in historical ranges: 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years.
Chronicle of the society state:
At Fig. 1 we see the significance of situations against the background of interest in the economy and political events over the past 5 years (on the left and right, blue bursts reflecting the US presidential elections in November 2016 and November 2020).
Fig. 2 (group I / range 3 years)
Analyzing Fig. 2, it becomes clear that humanity already was in tension in December 2019 and January 2020 (purple graph). Next, we see bursts of concern about the situation and the state of the markets (yellow and green) - this is the period of the announcement of the COVID19 Pandemic. Please note that after these events there is a decline in interest in politics, economics and markets (society was scared). The crisis wave (purple) subsides within two months.
Forming the current events ( it's really important ):
Fig. 3 (group I / range 1 month)
Fig. 4 (group I / range 1 week)
Figures 3 and 4 show a detailed condition of society in the ranges of the month and week. Significant events are reflected in high peaks that go beyond normal fluctuations. Find out why. In Fig. 4 aspects of "politics" and "economics" require research. Always remember that indexes at system "MX" cannot be random. Exactly these planes and scales of indicators are already popular with the heads of large international companies.
Analytical plane of group « II » - provides an opportunity to determine the direction of global investment intentions.
Intention to invest money [blue]
Intention to invest in real estate [red]
Intention to invest in cryptocurrency [yellow]
Intention to invest in gold [green]
In Fig. 5 we see how the priorities of investors change during the month (12 2020 / 01 2021). Investing in cryptocurrency is popular among investors. To understand any prevailing situation, the content of the news must be considered.
Example of a plane with high frequency data:
In Fig. 6 is range 1d of group II. It looks scary, but - we recommend getting used to and using it in linear mode (LN), this allows you to analyze in detail by high peaks. For smoothing, you can use the SA function. The function switch button is located in the lower right corner.
Smoothing high frequency data with SA function (Simple Average):
Here is the same plane (Fig. 6) with the SA function enabled (Simple Average).
Analysis in the planes of groups I and II almost always requires interpretation through news or agency information, but the graph will show the reaction of society before any changes in the market follow, so you have time to make appropriate decisions. In addition, never exclude the possibility of hidden activity and pressure on the market through pumping, but with the help of careful analysis, such actions can be foreseen.
Stage 2 - Influence of global intention (invest, buy "product", sell "product").
Intention charts are integrated into the plane of a specific “product” rate and their indicators are expressed in the “product” price.
At this stage of project development (taking into account the current demand), we have implemented the following planes:
BTC/USD — Bitcoin market plane : course graph, invest, buy, sell.BTC/USD — Ethereum market plane :course graph, invest, buy, sell.BTC/USD — Gold market plane :course graph, invest, buy, sell.The Gold Metallic Market workspace is presented to analyze the current state of the global economy, which has a significant impact on any market.
All workspaces are represented in several time ranges: 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years.
For the convenience of presenting the general trend of high-frequency charts, the SA function is provided (Simple Average). The button is located at the bottom right of the screen.
First of all, let's pay attention to the scale. The weekly plane includes part of the daily trend except for the last 2 hours 15 minutes and is the source of the current trend slope angle representation. It looks like this:
Fig. 8 (part of the current day on a weekly plane)
Part of the daily trend represented on the weekly plane:
Use mental projection of the slope of the weekly chart trend onto the daily plane, based on the pattern of weekly fluctuations. The dips in intention charts on the weekly plane (Figure 8) almost always correspond to night time in the United States. This is explained not only by the developed structure of consulting and analytical agencies of large companies and banks, but also by the adaptation of similar external structures in other countries of the World (Various regulators, Trading houses, Transnational and Investment companies, Exchanges, etc.). Keep in mind that during the day's ups, the dependence on the markets and the US economy grows - this will contribute to the correct analysis of the situation.
The socio-economic forecast is based on the analysis of intentions. Bursts of intentions arise for various reasons, including because of the reaction to the price of the "product", but intention always appears before action and only intention regulates price formation - no matter what reason this intention arose. It should be remembered that not all market participants' intentions are reflected in the chart. In addition, bursts of intent can have different potential and a small burst can lead to huge changes in the market. High peaks and high volume mountains tend to have a huge impact on the market.
Studying the MX system (mxport.com) you will develop your own analysis method, however, we recommend that you take into account the fundamental principles, we will focus your attention on some of them.
Let's consider the simplest analysis.
Distorted reflection of the trend of intention in the trend of the "product" price (daily plane: green chart (1) - intention to "buy BTC", blue trend (2) - "BTC rate"):
Fig. 10 (note the development of these trends in Fig. 11)
Against the background of the blue trend (box 2) Fig. 11 and Fig. 12 shows the form of further development of the current situation (green graph of intentions):
Here the forecast suggests itself "within an hour the price will rise". However, let's explore deeper and see what happens next. Let's pay attention to the weekly plane, it is necessary to understand the level of the trend of the intention and its main direction.
Fig. 13 (these are Saturday and Sunday - the activity level is extremely low here)
In a small red box, we see the size of the current daily plane, which we were looking at in charts 10-13. Let's analyze the situation. Let's look at the daytime plane in an hour. The intention to “sell BTC” is highlighted here (red chart). The amplitude of the red fluctuations grows - the market goes down, the price falls:
Forecast for Fig. 12 (that the price will rise) is not confirmed in practice - the price falls due to the low level of business activity. Let's analyze the situation even deeper and pay attention to the weekly plane "Group II":
The yellow graph "intent to invest in cryptocurrency" is at a very low level. The real forecast in this situation was as follows: "most likely the price will fall within 4-6 hours."
- The market is driven by intent only.
- Intention appears always before market action and reaction.
- There is a reason for intention and for any market situation. It doesn't matter what the situation is on the daily plane, no matter what forecast seems obvious to you - find and explain the reason for what you see (group I -> group II -> market analysis).
- Use several methods of analysis (socio-economic -> fundamental -> technical - we recommend this procedure and consider it the most effective).
Work plane shapes and states.
For teamwork and mutual understanding within the framework of specific discussions, we recommend focusing on the following forms and states:
Peak - this figure is never without a reason. This peak on 07 December 2019 of the year was associated with fears of a threatening crisis due to the rapid spread of COVID-19.
fissures in the trading plane are almost unbelievable, but in the day (1d) plane of “Group II” they are a common pattern. These are fluctuations in investment interest.
Pit - the formation of this figure looks like a fall in activity and a fall in the market. However, after the formation, it turns out that the PIT is generally a positive phenomenon causing a new explosion of interest in a stable asset (BTC market, 1m).
The mountain is an amazing combination of many circumstances, causing an incredible increase in interest in the market, a surge of intentions and a fast, literally - rapid rise in prices (BTC market, 5y).
JAWS / HUB / ACT
Periodic market conditions occurring due to temporary dips and changes in the level of activity. Jaws, as a rule, closes with a decline in price (but there are exceptions). Hub is formed depending on situations and the coincidence of many circumstances. Act - most likely it will close with price growth (but exceptions are possible).
You can rely on figures by only using several methods of analysis.
At the end of this short instruction we would like to say the following: Practice, attention, logic - that's all you need to use the MX analysis system. Take 1-2 months of research and this system will become a necessary and useful tool for you, increasing your guarantees of success.
If you like the MX project, you can support the development with small donations - this will improve the accuracy of the data and the quality of the analysis.
Best regards, MX team (mxport.com)